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                                                                                                                                                                          澳门大发888游戏:日常消费品:茅台一季报超预期 五粮液提价效果初显

                                                                                                                                                                              投资要点:

                                                                                                                                                                          投资策略茅台公告2019年第一季度实现营业总收入同比增长20%左右;实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比增长30%左右。公司2018年年报表现稳定优秀,同时2019年计划实现14%的收入增速,2019年一季报的高增速给予了全年完成目标的信心。我们认为茅台(600519)2019年一季报超预期的表现原因主要有以下几个原因:1)春节前非标茅台酒投放较多,公司为保证供应量安排春节前投放7500吨茅台酒,猪茅生肖酒达到30%,茅台酒的集中投放和非标产品占比的提高支撑了公司业绩。2)提前执行二季度打款。公司在3月份接受经销商对二季度的打款,预计将对预收账款有良好支撑,增强市场信心。

                                                                                                                                                                          从全年来看,公司2018年减少了437家茅台经销商,未来将通过增加直营比例、调整产品结构来维持利润的增长,一季度公司的直营比例提升有限,预计后期渠道建设完善后直营比例能得到有效提升。

                                                                                                                                                                          本周啤酒行业涨幅14.8%,在食品饮料子板块中排名第一。如今行业格局愈发明显,高端化的产品结构升级成为行业破局之路。行业内的关厂行为能有效提升产能利用率,解决区域不平衡的问题,提高费效比。虽然关厂初期面临较高的员工遣散费和资产折旧费用,但是后期利润弹性释放较大。

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年在成本下行红利以及增值税下调的背景下,业绩弹性有望得到加速释放。目前业内企业中,重庆啤酒(600132)在关厂提效层面走在前列,青岛啤酒因为体制原因多年没有进展,2018年关闭了2家工厂,预计后续关厂行为得到迅速推进,改善预期大。

                                                                                                                                                                          板块一周行情回顾上周食品饮料指数周涨幅为2.30%,涨幅位列第28。食品饮料行业细分板块内,上周啤酒(14.81%)、其他酒类(12.82%)和葡萄酒(3.83%)表现相对靠前,食品综合(-0.21%)、调味发酵品(0.37%)和肉制品(1.79%)表现相对较弱。

                                                                                                                                                                          本周重点公告和新闻【贵州茅台(600519)】2019年第一季度实现营业总收入同比增长20%左右;实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比增长30%左右。

                                                                                                                                                                          【五粮液(000858)宣布“VVV”等4个总经销品牌22款产品清理下架和停止销售】

                                                                                                                                                                          【茅台酒定制业务预计4月将恢复】

                                                                                                                                                                          【第七代经典五粮液价格上涨】

                                                                                                                                                                          风险提示行业政策变动风险、食品安全问题、原料成本上升、消费增速不达预期